MANAGING OF COST RISKS GENERATED FROM RISK RESPONSES IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Abstract

ABSTRACT

Risks and its management are important for the success of the project, as the risks in construction projects must be minimized to achieve the goals of the project which are time ,cost and quality .The risk management compose of planning, identification, analysis, and response which has an important phase, namely risk response that it should not be undermined, as its success gain the projects the capability to overcome the uncertainty and thus an effective tool in project risk management. The aim of the research is managing the cost risks generated from risk response to control the cost risks in the projects through the adoption of the fuzzy decision tree, system dynamic, highlight the role of risk response in the construction projects, its effect on the cost and the selection of the optimal risky response through Particle swarm and Gravitational Search Algorithm. To achieve the aim of the research, a review of the scientific literature and sources which deal with risk management, risk responses concept and strategies in construction projects, the costs elements, types, and factors affecting it with investigating the causes of their appearance. The results of data analysis of samples for the three periods 2006-2007,2008-2009, and2014-2016 have shown that different reason that leads to risk response failure, but the following found in every period, the inability to introduce sophisticated management methods to respond to risk, inadequate strategy with high-risk, failure to complete the risk response plan in a timely manner, neglecting the role of supervisors in the process of monitoring the risk response plan. VII While the analysis of cost risk generated from risk response for every period the following found in every period, delay in completing the project, ability to construct, wrong estimation. In the light of what has been reached by the data analysis of samples in the construction project, a management system has been built which can be used for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk by using fuzzy decision tree and system dynamic respectively, and then by analysis these risks, a risk response is being selected by using Particle swarm and the Gravitational Search Algorithm. The result of the risk response selection shows that the investment (contractor, bank) strategy shows a very good strategy as it saves the cost about 30%, while the Mitigate (pay for advances with interest 0. 1) strategy show saving the cost 40% and giving land to contractors show saving in cost about 40% finally the BIM strategy show saving in cost about 25%. The results of the assessment questioner approach for the management systems and computer programs, that this system facilitates the analyses of the cost risks and raise the efficiency of decision makers in the risk response selection and reducing the cost of the project by using the optimal strategy. Finally, serval suggestions have been reached for a set of for further research.